Nat's Key Seats

The Dom (via David Farrar) has an article regarding National's target seats in the South Island. It lists Invercargill, Otago, and, interestingly, Aoraki. I've never given the later of these much thought (although I picked Invercargill and Otago here).

Aoraki is a strange target; despite the fact it's a rural seat, the vast majority of the electorate live in Timaru - the demographics of which put it well within Labour's territory. I would say the Nats have more chance lifting Wellington Central, than Aoraki.

However, you can't under estimate an angry electorate, I guess...