Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Election Prediction #1

I really enjoy watching the seat-by-seat results as they come in - it's real, face-to-face politics. So, with less than 8 months left until the election, I have decided to blog a election seat predictor.
This is intended to stimulate debate - I know in several parts of this I'm not right, but I'm interested in what everyone else thinks. It should not be regarded with any authority what so ever. Although, having said that, I have put quite a bit of thought into it, spending most of last night researching it and writting it up.

This is based on the margin at the last election, and my observations. It's taken from the perspective of a Wellington-based student activist. Please bare in mind I am bias towards the left leaning parties, so this will probably reflect that (although I have tryed to be as neutral as possible).

And the math at the bottom of the post is very very rough.

(r) indicates that the sitting MP is retiring.

So here goes:

Seats Labour should keep:

  1. Aoraki - Jim Sutton - despite Young Labour upsetting the locals, Sutton should have no problems here.
  2. Auckland Central - Judith Tizard - the left-wing strong hold - Pansy Wong will have to pull out a huge effort here to win.
  3. Christchurch Central - Tim Barrent - continuing the Labour tradition of over 50 years.
  4. Christchurch East - Lianne Delziel - former cabinet minister will have to seriously blow it to lose a 14,000 vote majority.
  5. Dunedin North - Pete Hodgson - Hodgson will have no worries defending his 10,000 vote majority in the student stronghold.
  6. Dunedin South - David Benson-Pope - With high-profile promotions into cabinet, Benson-Pope will easily hold Michael Cullen's former seat.
  7. East Coast - Janet Mackey (r) - Unless there is a violent swing towards the Maori Party, it would seem unlikely that Moana Mackey will loose her mother's seat.
  8. Banks Peninsula - Ruth Dyson - with sitting MP's David Carter and Rod Donald standing against Dyson, she might be in trouble with a 2002 4,000 vote majority, but she should pull through.
  9. Hamilton West - Martin Gallagher - Gallagher should pull through here.
  10. Hutt South - Trevor Mallard - although Mallard drew a bit of stick over school closures, he should keep this one.
  11. Ikaroa-Rawhiti - Parakura Horomia - the Minister of Maori Affairs should re-win his seat, although it won't be as easy with the Maori Party on the up
  12. Mana - Winnie Laban - Laban will have no worries here
  13. Mangere - Taito Phillip Field - with a 14,000 vote majority, Field should have no problems in David Lange's former seat
  14. Manukau East - Ross Robertson - No problems here for the long serving Robertson
  15. Manurewa - George Hawkins - despite calls for his sacking earlier in the term, Hawkins should hold on here.
  16. Maungakiekie - Mark Gosche - Gosche had a huge majority in 2002 despite being held back by a family illness. Should be a repeat performance
  17. Mount Albert - Helen Clark - with a 16,000 vote majority in 2002, the Prime Minister should hold on (just...)
  18. Mount Roskill - Phil Goff - standing against two sitting MP's (Ogilvie and Wang) Goff may see his 13,000 vote majority drop a little, but not much.
  19. Napier - Russell Fairbrother - reasonably high profile backbench will keep this seat.
  20. New Lynn - David Cunliffe - promotions and a high profile will see Cunliffe carry this one.
  21. New Plymouth - Harry Duynhoven - Huge majority for Duynhoven will see him return, despite disputes over citizenship
  22. Northcote - Ann Hartley - The former Mayor of Northcote borough should hold this one.
  23. Otaki - Darren Hughes - Parliament's youngest MP should win, although the high profile National Candidate (Nathan Guy) already has a presence in the electorate, and could be a threat.
  24. Palmerston North - Steve Maharey - large majority in 2002 despite being Minister of Tertiary Education in a university seat
  25. Rimutaka - Paul Swain - despite the best efforts of Nick Kelly, Swain will keep this one.
  26. Rongatai - Annette King - easy win for King
  27. Rotorua - Steve Chadwick - high profile back bench MP will hold this one
  28. Tainui - Nanaia Mahuta - won a lot of respect in Maoridom when she voted against the foreshore and seebed bill, so should re-win this seat.
  29. Tamaki-Makaurau - John Tamihere - despite controversy over his Waiparara Trust goldern handshake, the high-profile Tamihere should hold this one
  30. Taupo - Mark Burton - no problems for cabinet minister Burton, over former Taumauranui mayor, Weston Kirton.
  31. Te Atatu - Chris Carter - high profile even before the Civil Union Bill, and will easily win this seat
  32. Te Tai Tokarau - Dover Samiels - controversial Samiels should fend off challenge from even more controversial Hone Harawira.
  33. Tukituki - Rick Barker - No problems here for cabinet minister Barker
  34. Waimakariri - Clayton Cosgrove - Cosgrove will hold Mike Moore's former seat
  35. Waitakere - Lynn Pilay - Pilay will win this seat through demographics only, having a very low profile
  36. West Coast/Tasman - Damien O'Connor - the birthplace of the Labour party, O'Connor will hold this one.
  37. Whanganui - Jill Pettis - unlikely the senior government whip will face too much of a challenge in this seat

Seats National should keep:

  1. Bay of Plenty - Tony Ryall - senior National MP, no problems
  2. Clevedon - Judith Collins - seems to have effectively built her profile in her first term
  3. Clutha/Southland - Bill English - former National leader will have no problems keeping this one.
  4. Coromandel - Sandra Gouldie - with a reasonable majority in 2002 over sitting MP (Ginette Fitzsimons), Gouldie will hold this one.
  5. East Coast Bays - Murray McCully - One of the more marginal seats in 2002, National's go-to guy should easily carry this one.
  6. Helensville - John Key - up-and-comer of the National Party, Key will not face competition from within like he did in 2002, and should hugely extend his majority.
  7. Ilam - Gerry Brownlee - high-profile deputy National leader will easily build on his 2002 majority.
  8. Kaikoura - Lynda Scott (r) - new-comer Colin King should pick up where Scott left off
  9. Nelson - Nick Smith - despite an embarrassingly short stint as deputy leader, Smith will hold this one.
  10. North Shore - Wayne Mapp - No worries here for Mapp in one of the wealthiest electorates in the country.
  11. Northland - David Carter - No worries here, in one of National's safest seats
  12. Pakuranga - Maurice Williamson - A safe seat for National, with rogue National MP against Young Labour President Micheal Woods.
  13. Piako - Lindsay Tisch - another extremely safe seat for National
  14. Port Waikato - Paul Hutchison - see above...
  15. Rakaia - Brian Connell - the low-profile Connell will safely keep Shipley's former seat
  16. Rangitikei - Simon Power - up-and-comer Power will easily hold this one.
  17. Rodney - Lockwood Smith - long-serving Smith will easily hold this seat.
  18. Taranaki/King Country - Shane Ardern - low profile backbench MP will hold this safe National seat.
  19. Whangarei - Phil Heatley - safe National seat for Heatley, easy win

Seats New Zealand First should keep:

  • Tauranga - Winston Peters - Peters is ever popular in Tauranga, although locally-popular National candidate Bob Clarkson could make a dent in his majority.

Seats The Progressives should keep:

  • Wigram - Jim Anderton - Anderton should hold on there, possibly turning him into the new lone-ranger of New Zealand politics.

Seats United Future should keep:

  • Ohirau-Belmont - Peter Dunne - said to be the most popular electorate MP in the country, Dunne will hold this one, ganuteeing United Future a place in parliament.

Seats Maori Party should keep:

  • Te Tai Hauauru - Tariana Turia - Party leader will hold this seat after a farsicle by-election

Maginal Seats - Seats to Watch:

  • Epsom - Richard Worth - with ACT fighting for their life, Rodney Hide will be desperate to win a seat to remain in Parliament. National will have learnt their lesson from Wellington Central in 1996, and will be unlikely to pull Worth, who should narrowly win this.
  • Hamilton East - Diane Yates - with only a slim majority in 2002, low profile Yates will be in trouble here if National pull out a strong candidate.
  • Invercargill - Mark Peck (r) - with Peck retiring, it is highly likely this seat will revert back to former National MP Eric Roy.
  • Otago - David Parker - a true blue seat, which Labour should never have theoretically won, and is unlikely to keep with the low profile Parker in 2005.
  • Tamaki - Clem Simich (r) - high profile (and outspoken) school principal Allen Peachey should hold Muldoon's former seat, although it was marginal in 2002
  • Te Tai Tonga - Mahara Okaroa - This will really come down to who is better resourced and staffed in the country's biggest electorate.
  • Waiariki - Mita Ririnui - low profile MP could face a serious challenge from a Maori Party candidate
  • Wairarapa - Georgina Buyer (r) - this will be a hard slog for Denise McKenzie to keep this seat Labour
  • Wellington Central - Marian Hobbs - a high profile race between Hobbs and former Mayor Mark Blumsky, this will come down to the wire. Will very much depend on what the Greens do, but I'm predicting a wafer thin win for Labour.

This means, on present polling: With a one-seat overhang

Labour - 44.8% - 55 seats (38 electorate / 17 list) includes Wellington Central

National - 35.3% - 44 seats (25 electorate / 19 list) includes: Wairarapa, Tamaki, Otago, Invercargill, Hamilton East, and Epsom.

Greens - 6.9% - 8 seats (8 list)

New Zealand First - 4.7% - 6 seats (1 electorate / 5 list) providing Peters wins Tauranga

United Future - 3% - 4 seats (1 electorte / 3 list) providing Dunne wins Ohirau-Belmont

ACT - 1.6% - 0 seats

Maori Party - 1.5% - 3 seats (3 electorate) includes: Te Tai Tonga and Waiariki

Progressives - 0% - 1 seat (1 electorate) providing Jim Anderton wins Wigram

Obviously, this will change as the election campaign starts.

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