Sunday, March 13, 2005

John Banks to (maybe) run in Tamaki

Interesting development this weekend, with former National cabinet minsiter and former mayor of Auckland City stating that he would like to run for ACT in Rob Muldoon and Bob Tizard's old seat of Tamaki. This is an interesting development to my earlier election prediction.

Let's step back to 2002. Tamaki was the most maginal seat in the country, with Clem Simich winning with a slim 1,200 vote majority over Labour's Leila Boyle, while ACT MP, Ken Shirley came in a distant third with 4,577 votes. Labour won the party vote in Tamaki, and Shirley punched above his weight, taking more party votes than electorate votes.

If Banks were to stand, it would be highly unlikely he would win, and it would displace Ken Shirley (something that could cause divisions in the ACT caucus). I would predict that Hide would have a better chance in Epsom than Banks in Tamaki. It also looks unlikely that the National Party are going to do ACT any favours after the recent speight of outbursts from both sides.

I beleive ACT would be foolish to bow down to the wants and needs of John Banks. The guy is a loose cannon, and hardly the liberal ACT are trying to brand themselves. It simply wouldn't be worth it.
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